Peter Obi, the hope of Nigerian youth who wants to energize the old parties
Dominated by two major parties since the return to democracy in 1999, Nigerian political life has been shaken up in recent months by a third man: Peter Obi, a wealthy businessman at the head of a microscopic party that appears to be a credible challenger on the eve of the February 25 presidential election.
He promises "to work hard" to bring out "a new Nigeria". Peter Obi intends to play spoilsports during February 25 presidential election, faced with two septuagenarians and heavyweights of political life from traditional parties: Atiku Abubakar, from the People's Democratic Party ( PDP ) and Bola Ahmed Tinubu, from the ruling party, the Congress of Progressive ( APC ).
With his frank smile, his pragmatic and unifying speeches – populists, according to his detractors –, this 61-year-old businessman embodies the hope of renewal among the youth of the largest country in Africa, where 60% of the population is under 25 years of age.
"The current government is in trouble and for some of the youth, people like Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu are part of the problem. Peter Obi is 61 but the youngest candidate and appears to be a new face, "said Dele Babalola, researcher at the University of Canterbury Christ Church in the United Kingdom.
Benefiting from massive support on social networks, Peter Obi has succeeded in recent months in moving from curiosity status in this campaign started five months ago to that of a credible alternative. The candidate also received the support of names that count in Nigeria: that of former President Olusegun Obasanjo or that of the writer and feminist activist Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie.
While the country is swimming in the midst of an economic and security slump, its supporters, nicknamed the "Obi-dients" ( word game between "obedience" and the name of Peter Obi ), see him as an antidote to an aging political class accused of corruption and poor governance.
The multimillionaire indeed enjoys an almost legendary image of integrity and sobriety. He does not like luxury watches, nor the flashy lifestyle of the Nigerian elite. "My son is 30 years old and he still doesn't have a car. It is up to him to buy his own vehicle, "he assured during a speech in May 2022, to the applause of his supporters.
Peter Obi's candidacy began to emerge in the wake of major protests in the movement #EndSARS in October 2020. He then largely supported the young demonstrators who demanded the dissolution of this anti-corruption unit accused of police violence and to enjoy total impunity.
> > Read about France 24 : #EndSARS: the rallying cry in Nigeria against police violence and repression
The movement then multiplied the demands against corruption and in favor of greater social justice. In Nigeria, while some wealthy businessmen benefit from the oil windfall, almost half of the population lives below the poverty line, according to the World Bank.
A "Nigerian Macron" ?
Born in 1961 into an Igbo Christian family, the third ethnic group in Nigeria, the journey of Peter Obi resembles that of a large part of the country's economic elite : a degree in philosophy, management courses in Lagos, Harvard or the London School of Economics, before starting a business career and occupying management positions in several Nigerian banks.
A former banker who intends to break a bipartite system that has dominated the political landscape for decades ? It didn't take more the international press to draw the parallel between Peter Obi and the journey of the current French president, Emmanuel Macron. Unknown to the general public at his appointment to the Ministry of the Economy in 2014, Emmanuel Macron had experienced a lightning climb and won only three years later the presidential election.
Like candidate Macron, Peter Obi, who led the Labor Party last year, a modest background that has no governor in Nigeria, must campaign without the support of a large structure established at the national level.
"However, comparing Macron and Obi is a mistake," said Ladipo Adamolekun, a Nigerian specialist in public administration and a great Francophile. "Macron created the 'On the Market' party at a time when traditional parties were in decline, which is not the case with Peter Obi," said the expert.
Unlike François Hollande's former finance minister, Peter Obi is also far from being a novice in politics. Governor of the State of Anambra from 2006 to 2014, he was a candidate of the opposition ( PDP, Democratic People's Party ) for the vice-presidency during the last presidential election in 2019. The businessman has also changed political training four times since 2002, flanking accusations of opportunism.
His contemplators also question his probity since his name was mentioned in Pandora Papers in 2021. Its supporters, on the contrary, emphasize its impeccable management of the State of Anambra. "He also left huge savings in state coffers at the end of his two four-year terms," notes BBC Africa. A heavy argument while the first African economy is weighed down by an abysmal debt.
"The Igbo vote will not be enough"
While the momentum around Peter Obi's candidacy is real, many analysts doubt that they can win, despite flattering polls.
"Some say that Obi has no political structure behind him but that he has the youth to compensate, in particular thanks to social networks. In reality, most of these young internet workers live abroad and have no voting rights in Nigeria, "said Dele Babalola. "In addition, polls are not as reliable in Africa as they are in Europe," adds the political scientist.
Another element playing against Peter Obi: participation. It is often low in Nigeria ( 33% during the 2019 presidential election, 44 % in 2015 ) and young people are generally not the most mobilized voters on polling day.
Finally, the question of ethnicity, religion and regional identity plays a central role in the choice of voters. "The Igbo vote will not be enough to win the election," says Dele Babalola, who recalls the importance of obtaining votes in the North, mainly Muslim.
Whatever the outcome of the vote, whoever wins the next presidential election in Nigeria will face immense challenges: inflation that exceeds 20%, fuel shortages, a lack of cash linked to the ill-prepared introduction of new tickets, an energy crisis that causes frequent load shedding...
Public finances are also in bad shape. As RFI reminds, "the debt sucked 41% of the state budget" in 2022 and the new deterioration of the country's sovereign rating by the agency Moody's, which took place at the end of January, shouldn't fix things.
"However, I doubt that the new president can set up good governance in the current state of things", analyzes Ladipo Adamolekun who calls for the establishment of a "more devolved federal system".
"The new president will have to accept that the structures in place cannot make the government work," said the public policy expert. "The 1999 constitution has overly favored centralization, especially of the police, and this plays a lot in the security problems in Nigeria".
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President Muhammadu Buhari's last term was marked by an increase in insecurity in Nigeria, linked to inter-ethnic conflicts, the presence of criminal gangs and terrorist groups. According to the United Nations, jihadist violence have killed more than 40,000 people since 2009 in the north-east of the country and forced some 2.2 million people to leave their homes.
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